New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.
The report is co-authored by more than 60 leading natural and social scientists – including four from Griffith University from the Australian Rivers Institute – from the Earth Commission, which is an international science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.
The report builds on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed.
Professor Emeritus Stuart Bunn co-led one of the working groups, which focused on the boundaries freshwater and nutrient pollution. Dr Ben Stewart-Koster provided key science support and Dr Christopher Ndehedehe provided global scale analyses of groundwater for this working group. Dr Syezlin Hasan worked in a different working group, focused on methods to convert the boundaries to actionable targets for companies and cities.
The report’s key findings included:
- It remains possible for all humans to escape poverty and be safe from harm caused by Earth system change – but the planet’s ability to provide and protect is being stretched past its limits.
- Scientists have identified the “Safe and Just Space” – the only space rich in opportunities – but future projections to 2050 show that this Space will shrink over time, driven by inequality, unless urgent transformations take place.
- The only way to provide for everyone and ensure societies, businesses and economies thrive without destabilising the planet is to reduce inequalities in how critical Earth system resources, such as freshwater and nutrients, are accessed and used – alongside economic and technological transformation.
- Cities and businesses can play a crucial role and become the stewards of our critical Earth systems. This paper provides a guide to how they can reduce their impact on the planet.
- The report identified the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature could be minimised while everyone could be provided for – and set out the paths to reach and stay in this Space.
In this new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050 and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate specifically they found if significant changes were not made now, by 2050 there would be no Safe and Just Space left.
That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth would still be outside the climate boundary. Earth systems face the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points which would cause further significant harm to people around the world – unless energy, food and urban systems were urgently transformed.
The Safe and Just Space was the only remaining space rich in opportunities – in which people and the planet would remain able to thrive. To reach this space, the paper called for change in three areas:
- Firstly, a well-coordinated, intentional effort between policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities can push for changes to how we run the economy and find new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate.
- Secondly, fundamental to the transformation is more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society – including addressing the excess consumption of some communities which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most.
- Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies is essential to help us use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all – particularly where there is little or no space left.
The Australian National University also contributed to the global report, which has been published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
