By Ayda Kuluk, Troy Allard, Carleen Thompson, James M. Ogilvie and Lisa Broidy
Why do some people keep getting into trouble with the law – while others never do?
A major Australian study tracking 80,000 people from birth into adulthood offers answers. And it suggests we need to look at boys and girls very differently when it comes to preventing crime.
The findings offer crucial insights that could help shape more effective, targeted crime prevention strategies, especially if we intervene early.
We followed over 80,000 people born in Queensland in the early 1980s, linking this longitudinal data with official police records to analyse patterns of criminal behaviour across the life course.
The good news? The vast majority of people never come into serious contact with the criminal justice system. But for those who do, the study uncovered distinct and diverging patterns, especially between men and women.
Men vs women – the key differences
Among men, researchers identified three main “offending trajectories”; a large group who rarely or never offended, a small group who began offending in childhood or adolescence and continued persistently into adulthood, and a group who offended during youth but gradually stopped as they aged.
In contrast, women were overwhelmingly concentrated in the low- or non-offending category. Only a small fraction showed any persistent or serious criminal behaviour over time.
So why do some people follow a persistent path of offending, while others grow out of it, or avoid it altogether?
For men, early warning signs were often visible in childhood. Behavioural problems, school difficulties, and family adversity, such as poverty, parental conflict, or neglect, were strong predictors of long-term criminal involvement.
For women, however, the pathways looked different.
Mental illness, histories of childhood maltreatment, and experiences of trauma played a more prominent role in understanding criminal behaviour among women.
These findings align with growing evidence that women in the justice system are more likely to be victims of violence themselves and often face complex social and psychological challenges.
Why gender matters in crime prevention
Despite a rise in female offending in recent decades, much of what we know about crime still reflects male-dominated patterns.
This study helps fill that gap by showing that women’s pathways into crime are not just fewer, they’re also different.
It highlights a key point, one-size-fits-all approaches to crime prevention are unlikely to work. Instead, strategies need to reflect the specific risks and realities people face, including the gendered nature of those risks.
For boys and young men, that may mean identifying and addressing behavioural issues early in life, providing support at school, and reducing exposure to unstable or violent home environments.
For girls and young women, trauma-informed approaches that focus on safety, mental health, and recovery could be far more effective.
What are the next steps?
The findings from this Queensland cohort, one of the most comprehensive crime studies ever conducted in Australia, underscore the importance of early, tailored intervention.
By recognising how crime unfolds differently for different people, particularly between men and women, policymakers and service providers can design smarter, more targeted prevention programs.
These could help reduce long-term offending, ease the burden on the criminal justice system, and support healthier outcomes across society.
In short: if we want to stop crime before it starts, we need to start with children, and we need to pay close attention to the different paths they may be on.
Read the full study: Offending Trajectories in an Australian Birth Cohort
Via The Conversation.
