The Queensland swing required for Bill Shorten to oust Malcolm Turnbull on July 2 is not on the cards, a new federal election analysis shows.

The Conversation has today published the first instalment of its ‘State of the states’ election series where political scientists at Griffith University’s Policy Innovation Hub decide it’s ‘advantage Coalition’ in the battleground state.

“With two-and-a-half weeks of campaigning to go, there doesn’t appear to be the kind of mood for change that usually accompanies big swings in Queensland,” Professor Anne Tiernan, Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, says.

“There is also a developing consensus that the national swings reported in published opinion polls are not translating to the seats that matter.

“This, and historical experience, may explain why the Coalition looks less anxious in Queensland than some might have anticipated.”

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The Griffith team has developed in-depth profiles of 10 marginal seats in Queensland since the marathon campaign started on May 8.

Professor Tiernan says the type of voter volatility that brought governments of Paul Keating, John Howard and Campbell Newman to its knees in the past is not expected to come into play in 2016 as the power of incumbency gives government candidates the edge in tight seats like Capricornia, Dawson, Herbert and Leichardt.

In The Conversation’s extensive analysis of the key issues likely to affect voters in far north Queensland and central Queensland, Professor Tiernan identifies unemployment, the closure of Queensland Nickel and negative equity on properties purchased during the mining boom as major factors come polling day.

“Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s much-vaunted ‘economic plan’ aims to transition Australia from the mining boom to the new ‘innovation economy’. But that means quite different things to voters in the north and west of the state, where unemployment is above the state average of 6.2%.

“The Great Barrier Reef is a hot topic statewide for voters concerned about the environment and climate change. But in these northern seats, protecting the reef is also about protecting vital jobs in tourism.”

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